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02 June,2023
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The Indian rupee saw its best single-day gain in two months on Thursday, and also rose to a two-week high during the session, following strong domestic growth data, which prompted traders to square off long dollar positions.

The rupee closed at 82.405 against the U.S. dollar, compared to 82.7225 on Wednesday, after touching 82.3675 during the session, its highest since May 18. On Thursday, the rupee rose 0.38%, to mark its best day since April 5.

Consistent flows into equities coupled with strong economic data is supporting the rupee, said Dilip Parmar, a research analyst at HDFC Securities.

The USD/INR, though, is expected to see strong support around the 82.30.

India's economic growth accelerated to 6.1% in the March quarter, higher than what economists had expected, confirming that the country remains one of the fastest growing emerging economies.Adding to strong growth numbers, India's factory output expanded at the quickest pace since October 2020 in May, thanks to strong demand and output, a private survey showed.

The rupee was also helped by comments from two U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers that indicated that they were not in favour of raising rates in June.

The dollar was on track for its worst daily loss in nearly a month on Thursday as U.S. manufacturing data and comments by Federal Reserve officials reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will likely skip an interest rate hike at its upcoming meeting.

The euro recovered from a two-month low on Thursday after European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said further policy tightening was necessary.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six peers, fell 0.547% at 103.580, off a two-month high of 104.7 touched on Wednesday as investors trimmed bets the Fed will raise interest rates this month.

The euro was last up 0.64% to $1.0757, coming off a two-month low of $1.0635 on Wednesday, after some European countries released national inflation data showing signs that price pressures have eased.While data on Thursday showed that inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro eased to 6.1% in May from 7.0% in April, below expectations for 6.3% in a Reuters poll of economists, the current level is more than three times the ECB's 2% inflation target.

The  sterling was last trading at $1.2524, up 0.67% on the day, while the Australian dollar rose 0.98% versus the greenback at $0.657.

Crude prices settled up as much as 3% Thursday, paring the 7% loss from three previous days of trading, as market participants braced for the possibility that OPEC+ would announce another output cut at its meeting this weekend — against bets for a stay. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, crude settled up $2.01, or nearly 3%, at $70.10 per barrel. In the previous session, it hit a four-week low of $67.07.London-traded Brent crude settled up $1.68, or 2.3%, at $74.28. The global benchmark for oil hit a four-week low of $71.53 on Wednesday.
RBI REFERENCE RATE : USD:82.45,EURO:88.06,JPY:59.02,GBP: 102.55
Performance of Rupee against various major currencies
Currency RatesOpenHighLowCloseChange (%)
NSE USD INR OCT83.180083.185083.047583.0750-0.17
NSE EUR INR OCT88.007588.230087.900088.12250.41
NSE JPY INR OCT55.725055.970055.652555.7525-0.09
NSE GBP INR OCT101.5700101.9500101.5350101.86000.35
CurrencyClose PriceDay HighDay LowChange(%)
DOLLAR INDEX103.5400103.5600103.5200-0.02
ContractFut CloseRES 2RES 1ATPSUP 1SUP 2
USDINR 29 JUNE82.500082.870082.600082.520082.250082.1700
EURINR 29 JUNE88.500088.670088.520088.370088.220088.0700
JPYINR 29 JUNE59.480059.620059.490059.410059.280059.2000
GBPINR 29 JUNE102.8500103.0600102.8900102.6500102.5500102.3800
PIVOT THEORY: If the Future close price (Fut Close) is greater than Average Trading Price (ATP) - Buy Above the High for Targets Resistance 1 (RES 1) and Resistance 2 (RES 2) i.e. go Long on the Position. If the Future close is less than ATP - Sell below the Low for Targets Support 1 (SUP 1) and Support 2 (SUP 2) i.e. go Short on the Position. If Future Crosses RES 2 in the same day of the Trade it indicates Strong Buy. If Future breaks SUP 2 in the same day it indicates Strong Sell.